No
Doomsday in 2012
Apparently, the world is going to end on
December 21st, 2012. Yes, you read correctly, in some way, shape or form, the
Earth (or at least a large portion of humans on the planet) will cease to
exist. Stop planning your careers, don’t bother buying a house, and be sure to
spend the last years of your life doing something you always wanted to do but
never had the time. Now you have the time, four years of time, to enjoy
yourselves before… the end.
So what is all this crazy talk? We’ve all
heard these doomsday predictions before, we’re still here, and the planet is
still here, why is 2012 so important? Well, the Mayan calendar stops at the end
of the year 2012, churning up all sorts of religious, scientific, astrological
and historic reasons why this calendar foretells the end of life as we know it.
The Mayan Prophecy is gaining strength and appears to be worrying people in all
areas of society. Forget Nostradamus, forget the Y2K bug, forget the credit
crunch, this event is predicted to be huge and many wholeheartedly believe this
is going to happen for real. Planet X could even be making a comeback.
For all those 2012 Mayan Prophecy believers
out there, I have bad news. There is going to be no doomsday event in 2012, and
here’s why…
The
Mayan Calendar
So
what is the Mayan Calendar? The calendar was constructed by an advanced
civilization called the Mayans around 250-900 AD. Evidence for the Maya empire
stretches around most parts of the southern states of Mexico and reaches down
to the current geological locations of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador and some
of Honduras. The people living in Mayan society exhibited very advanced written
skills and had an amazing ability when constructing cities and urban planning.
The Mayans are probably most famous for their pyramids and other intricate and
grand buildings. The people of Maya had a huge impact on Central American
culture, not just within their civilization, but with other indigenous
populations in the region. Significant numbers of Mayans still live today,
continuing their age-old traditions.
The Mayans used many different calendars
and viewed time as a meshing of spiritual cycles. While the calendars had
practical uses, such as social, agricultural, commercial and administrative
tasks, there was a very heavy religious element. Each day had a patron spirit,
signifying that each day had specific use. This contrasts greatly with our
modern Gregorian calendar which primarily sets the administrative, social and
economic dates.
Most of the Mayan calendars were short. The
Tzolk’in calendar lasted for 260 days and the Haab’ approximated the solar year
of 365 days. The Mayans then combined both the Tzolk’in and the Haab’ to form
the “Calendar Round”, a cycle lasting 52 Haab’s (around 52 years, or the
approximate length of a generation). Within the Calendar Round were the trecena
(13 day cycle) and the veintena (20 day cycle). Obviously, this system would
only be of use when considering the 18,980 unique days over the course of 52
years. In addition to these systems, the Mayans also had the “Venus Cycle”.
Being keen and highly accurate astronomers they formed a calendar based on the
location of Venus in the night sky. It’s also possible they did the same with
the other planets in the Solar System.
Using the Calendar Round is great if you
simply wanted to remember the date of your birthday or significant religious
periods, but what about recording history? There was no way to record a date older
than 52 years.
The
end of the Long Count = the end of the Earth?
The
Mayans had a solution. Using an innovative method, they were able to expand on
the 52 year Calendar Round. Up to this point, the Mayan Calendar may have
sounded a little archaic – after all, it was possibly based on religious
belief, the menstrual cycle, mathematical calculations using the numbers 13 and
20 as the base units and a heavy mix of astrological myth. The only principal
correlation with the modern calendar is the Haab’ that recognised there were
365 days in one solar year (it’s not clear whether the Mayans accounted for
leap years). The answer to a longer calendar could be found in the “Long
Count”, a calendar lasting 5126 years.
I’m personally very impressed with this
dating system. For starters, it is numerically predictable and it can
accurately pinpoint historical dates. However, it depends on a base unit of 20
(where modern calendars use a base unit of 10). So how does this work?
The base year for the Mayan Long Count
starts at “0.0.0.0.0″. Each zero goes from 0-19 and each represent a tally of
Mayan days. So, for example, the first day in the Long Count is denoted as
0.0.0.0.1. On the 19th day we’ll have 0.0.0.0.19, on the 20th day it goes up
one level and we’ll have 0.0.0.1.0. This count continues until 0.0.1.0.0 (about
one year), 0.1.0.0.0 (about 20 years) and 1.0.0.0.0 (about 400 years).
Therefore, if I pick an arbitrary date of 2.10.12.7.1, this represents the
Mayan date of approximately 1012 years, 7 months and 1 day.
This is all very interesting, but what has
this got to do with the end of the world? The Mayan Prophecy is wholly based on
the assumption that something bad is going to happen when the Mayan Long Count
calendar runs out. Experts are divided as to when the Long Count ends, but as
the Maya used the numbers of 13 and 20 at the root of their numerical systems,
the last day could occur on 13.0.0.0.0. When does this happen? Well, 13.0.0.0.0
represents 5126 years and the Long Count started on 0.0.0.0.0, which
corresponds to the modern date of August 11th 3114 BC. Have you seen the
problem yet? The Mayan Long Count ends 5126 years later on December 21st, 2012.
Doomsday
When
something ends (even something as innocent as an ancient calendar), people seem
to think up the most extreme possibilities for the end of civilization as we
know it. A brief scan of the internet will pull up the most popular to some
very weird ways that we will, with little logical thought, be wiped off the
face of the planet. Archaeologists and mythologists on the other hand believe
that the Mayans predicted an age of enlightenment when 13.0.0.0.0 comes around;
there isn’t actually much evidence to suggest doomsday will strike. If
anything, the Mayans predict a religious miracle, not anything sinister.
Myths are abound and seem to be fuelling
movie storylines. It looks like the new Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the
Crystal Skull is even based around the Mayan myth that 13 crystal skulls can
save humanity from certain doom. This myth says that if the 13 ancient skulls
are not brought together at the right time, the Earth will be knocked off its
axis. This might be a great plotline for blockbuster movies, but it also
highlights the hype that can be stirred, lighting up religious, scientific and
not-so-scientific ideas that the world is doomed.
Some of the most popular space-based
threats to the Earth and mankind focus on Planet X wiping most life off the
planet, meteorite impacts, black holes, killer solar flares, Gamma Ray Bursts
from star systems, a rapid ice age and a polar (magnetic) shift. There is so
much evidence against these things happening in 2012, it’s shocking just how
much of a following they have generated. Each of the above “threats” needs
their own devoted article as to why there is no hard evidence to support the
hype.
But the fact remains, the Mayan Doomsday
Prophecy is purely based on a calendar which we believe hasn’t been designed to
calculate dates beyond 2012. Mayan archaeo-astronomers are even in debate as to
whether the Long Count is designed to be reset to 0.0.0.0.0 after 13.0.0.0.0,
or whether the calendar simply continues to 20.0.0.0.0 (approximately 8000 AD)
and then reset. As Karl Kruszelnicki brilliantly writes:
“…when a calendar comes to the end of a
cycle, it just rolls over into the next cycle. In our Western society, every
year 31 December is followed, not by the End of the World, but by 1 January. So
13.0.0.0.0 in the Mayan calendar will be followed by 0.0.0.0.1 – or good-ol’ 22
December 2012, with only a few shopping days left to Christmas.” – Excerpt from
Dr Karl’s “Great Moments in Science“.
2012:
No Planet X
I’m sorry, but the “facts” behind the
Planet X/Nibiru myth simply do not add up. Don’t worry, Planet X will not be
knocking on our door in 2012 and here’s why…
Nibiru
and Planet X
In 1843, John Couch Adams (a British
mathematician and astronomer) studied the orbital perturbations of Uranus and
deduced that through gravitational interactions, there must be an eighth
planet, tugging at the gas giant. This led to the discovery of Neptune,
orbiting at a distance of 30AU from the Sun. There have been numerous occasions
where this method has been used to deduce the existence of other bodies in the
Solar System before they were directly observed.
Neptune was also experiencing orbital
perturbations, and on the discovery of Pluto in 1930, it was thought that the
aptly named “Planet X” had been discovered. Alas, Pluto’s mass was tiny, and
once the orbit of Charon (Pluto’s moon) was analysed it was found that the mass
of the Pluto-Charon system was far too small to affect the orbit of Neptune.
The hunt for Planet X continued…
After years of speculation and historic
research, it was believed that a huge body astronomers were looking for was a
huge planet or a small star, possibly a companion to our Sun (making the Solar
System a binary system). The name “Nibiru” was unearthed by the author Zecharia
Sitchin, on researching the possible intervention of extraterrestrials in the
early history of mankind. Nibiru is a hypothetical planet as taught in ancient
Sumerian culture (the Sumerians existed from around 6,000BC to 3,000BC,
predating Babylon, in the current geographic location of Iraq). There is very
little archaeological evidence to suggest this mythical planet has anything to
do with Planet X. But since this dubious connection, Planet X and Nibiru are
now thought by doomsayers to be the same thing, an ancient astronomical body
that has returned after a long orbit beyond the Solar System.
OK, so the Nibiru/Planet X connection might
be a bit ropey already, but is there any solid evidence for the modern-day
Planet X?
Infrared
observations = Planet X
There is much emphasis placed on the 1983
“discovery” of a mysterious heavenly body by NASA’s Infrared Astronomical
Satellite (IRAS) on the outskirts of the Solar system, some 50 billion miles
(540 AU) away. Naturally the world’s media will have been very excited by such
a discovery and began making noises that perhaps this was Planet X (the most
popular accessible resources for Planet X advocates is the Washington Post
article published on December 31st 1983 titled “Mystery Heavenly Body
Discovered“). In actuality, astronomers weren’t sure what the infrared object
was (the clue is in the word “mystery”). Initial media reports postulated that
it could be a long-period comet, or a planet, or a far-off young galaxy or a
protostar (i.e. a brown dwarf). As soon as the last possibility is mentioned,
suddenly this became the “discovery” that Planet X was in fact a brown dwarf
orbiting in the outer reaches of our Solar System.
“So mysterious is the object that
astronomers do not know if it is a planet, a giant comet, a nearby “protostar”
that never got hot enough to become a star, a distant galaxy so young that it
is still in the process of forming its first stars or a galaxy so shrouded in
dust that none of the light cast by its stars ever gets through.” – Thomas
O’Toole, Washington Post Staff Writer, December 30th 1983 (from text on the
Planet X and Pole Shift website)
So where did the Washington Post get its
story? The story was published in response to the research printed a paper
titled “Unidentified point sources in the IRAS minisurvey” (by Houck et al,
published in Astrophysical Journal Letters, 278:L63, 1984). Dr. Gerry
Neugebauer, co-investigator in the IRAS project, was interviewed and strongly
stated that what IRAS had seen was not “incoming mail” (i.e. the results did
not suggest there was an object approaching Earth). On reading this interesting
research, I was especially drawn to the paper’s conclusion:
“A number of candidate identifications have
been considered including near-solar system, galactic, and extragalactic
objects. Further observations at infrared and other wavelengths may provide
additional information in support of one of these conjectures, or perhaps these
objects will require entirely different interpretations.” – Houck et al,
Astrophysical Journal Letters, 278:L63, 1984.
Although these IRAS observations were
seeing mysterious objects, at this stage, there was no indication that there
was an object (let alone a brown dwarf) powering its way toward us. But the
rumours had already begun to flow. When follow-up papers were published in 1985
(Unidentified IRAS sources – Ultrahigh-luminosity galaxies, Houck et al., 1985)
and 1987 (The IRAS View of the Extragalactic Sky, Soifer et al., 1987), there
was little if any media interest in their findings. According to these
publications, most of the IRAS observations in the 1984 paper were distant,
ultra-luminous young galaxies and one was a filamentary structure known as
“infrared cirrus” floating in intergalactic space. IRAS never observed any
astronomical body in the outer reaches of the Solar System.
Orbital
perturbations = Planet X
In
addition to the 1983 “discovery” of the Planet X brown dwarf, the 1992 Planet X
claim goes something like this: “Unexplained deviations in the orbits of Uranus
and Neptune point to a large outer solar system body of 4 to 8 Earth masses, on
a highly tilted orbit, beyond 7 billion miles from the sun,” – text from an
un-cited NASA source on the “Planet X Forecast and 2012 Survival Guide” video.
Pulling up the discovery of planets using
orbital perturbation measurements, Planet X advocates point to a NASA
announcement that in 1992, there were indirect measurements of a planet some 7
billion miles from Earth. Alas, I cannot find the original source for this
claim. The only huge discovery NASA announced along these lines was the
discovery of the first major trans-Neptunian object (TNO) called 1992 QB1 (full
details of the discovery of this “cubewano-class” object can be found in the
original announcement transcript). It has a diameter of 200km and is confined
to the Kuiper Belt, a zone of minor planets (where Pluto lives) and asteroids
from 30AU to 55AU, just outside Neptune’s orbit. Some of these bodies (like
Pluto) cross the path of Neptune’s orbit and there therefore designated as a
TNO. These TNO’s pose no threat to the Earth (in as much as they wont be
leaving the Kuiper Belt to pay us a visit in 2012).
Since then, any Neptune orbital
perturbations have been put down to observational error and have since not been
observed… so there doesn’t appear to be any obvious object any bigger than the
largest Kuiper Belt objects out there. Still, to keep an open mind, there could
be more large bodies to be discovered (that might explain why there is such a
steep drop-off of Kuiper Belt objects at the “Kuiper Cliff”, the jury is out on
that idea), but there is no evidence for a massive body approaching from the
vicinity of the Kuiper Belt. Even the strange Pioneer anomaly that the Pioneer
and Voyager probes are experiencing cannot be attributed to Planet X. This
anomaly appears to be a Sun-ward acceleration, if there was a massive planet
out there, there should be some gravitational effect beyond what has been
predicted by the other known objects in the Solar System.
4-8
Earth masses = a brown dwarf? It must be Planet X.
Probably the most glaring inconsistency in the
Planet X hypothesis is the Planet X advocates assertion that the 1984 IRAS
object and the 1992 body are one of the same thing. As announced on many
websites and online videos about Planet X, the 1984 IRAS observation saw Planet
X at 50 billion miles from Earth. The 1992 NASA “announcement” put Planet X at
a distance of about 7 billion miles from Earth. Therefore, the logic goes,
Planet X had travelled 43 billion miles in the course of only eight years (from
1984 to 1992). After some dubious mathematics, Planet X is therefore expected
to reach the core of the Solar System in 2012. (Although many believed it
should arrive in 2003… they were obviously wrong about that prediction.)
Well, I think we might be clutching at
straws here. For starters, for the 1984 object to be the same as the 1992
object, surely they should be the same mass? If Planet X was a brown dwarf (as
we are led to believe in the IRAS observations), how can it possibly weigh in
at only 4 to 8 Earth masses eight years later? Brown dwarfs have a mass of
around 15-80 Jupiter masses. As Jupiter is about 318 Earth masses, surely the
object hurtling toward us should have a mass of somewhere between 4,770 and
25,440 Earth masses? So I am going to go out on a limb here and say that I
reckon the 1984 object and the 1992 object (if either object actually existed
that is) are not the same thing. Not by a very long shot.
If
there is no evidence supporting Planet X, it must be a conspiracy
If
it can be this easy to cast the fundamental “scientific” theory behind Planet X
into doubt, I see little point in discussing the historical reasons (mass
extinctions, volcanic activity, earthquakes etc.) as to why the doomsayers
believe Planet X should exist. If there is no renegade planet out there of significant
mass, how can Nibiru be a threat to us in 2012?
They will have us believe there is a global
conspiracy of international governments hiding the facts from us. NASA is
involved in the cover-up, hence the lack of evidence. In my opinion, simply
because there is no evidence, doesn’t mean there is a conspiracy to hide the
truth from the public. So why would governments want to hide a “discovery” as
historic as a doomsday planet approaching the inner Solar System anyway? To
avoid mass panic and pursue their own, greedy agendas (obviously).
As it turns out, this is the only strength
behind the Planet X myth. When confronted with scientific facts, the Planet X
advocates reply with “…governments are sending out disinformation and covering
up the true observations of Nibiru.” Although I enjoy a good conspiracy theory,
I will not support anything in the name of Planet X. If the basic science
behind what we are led to believe are the foundation of Planet X existing is
wrong, it seems a poor argument to say “the government did it”.
Therefore, the story that Planet X will
arrive in 2012-21-December is, in my view, total bunkum (but it helps to sell
doomsday books and DVDs by scaring people). Nibiru will remain in the realms of
Sumerian myth.
2012:
Planet X is not Nibiru
Wednesday, June 18th, Japanese researchers
announced news that their theoretical search for a large mass in the outer
Solar System has produced results. From their calculations, there might just be
a planet, possibly a bit bigger than a Plutoid but certainly smaller than Earth
orbiting beyond 100 AU from the Sun. But before we get carried away, this is
not Nibiru, this is not proof of the end of the world in 2012; it is a new and
very exciting development in the search for minor planets beyond the Kuiper
Belt…
In a
new theoretical simulation, two researchers have deduced that the outermost
reaches of the Solar System may contain an undiscovered planet. Patryk Lykawka
and Tadashi Mukai of Kobe University have published a paper in the Astrophysical
Journal detailing a minor planet that they believe may be interacting with the
mysterious Kuiper Belt.
Kuiper
Belt Objects (KBOs)
The Kuiper Belt occupies a huge region of
space, approximately 30-50 AU from the Sun. It contains a vast number of rocky
and metallic objects, the largest known body being the dwarf planet (or
“Plutoid”) Eris. It has been known for many years that the Kuiper Belt has a
few strange characteristics that may signal the presence of another large
planetary body orbiting the Sun beyond the Kuiper Belt. One such feature is the
aptly named “Kuiper Cliff” that occurs at 50 AU. This is an abrupt end to the
Kuiper Belt, very few Kuiper Belt objects (or KBOs) have been observed beyond
this point. This cliff cannot be attributed to orbital resonances with massive
planets such as Neptune, and there doesn’t appear to be any obvious
observational error. Many astronomers believe that such a sharp cut-off in KBO
population may be due to an as-yet to be discovered planet, possibly as large as
Earth. This is an object Lykawka and Mukai believe they have calculated to
exist.
This research predicts a large object,
30-70% the mass of the Earth, orbiting at a distance of around 100-200 AU from
the Sun. This object may also help explain why some KBOs and tran-Neptunian
objects (TNOs) have some strange orbital characteristics (such as Sedna).
Ever since Pluto was discovered in 1930,
astronomers have been looking for another more massive body that could explain
the orbital perturbations observed in the orbits of Neptune and Uranus. This
search became known as the “search for Planet X”, which literally meant the
“search for an as yet unidentified planet.” In the 1980′s these perturbations
were put down to observational error. Therefore, the modern-day scientific
search for Planet X is the search for a large KBO or a minor planet beyond.
Although Planet X may not be larger than the mass of the Earth, researchers are
still very excited about finding more KBOs, possibly the size of a Plutoid,
possibly a little bigger, but not much bigger.
“The interesting thing for me is the
suggestion of the kinds of very interesting objects that may yet await
discovery in the outer solar system. We are still scratching the edges of that
region of the solar system, and I expect many surprises await us with the
future deeper surveys.” – Mark Sykes, Director of the Planetary Science
Institute in Arizona.
Planet
X is not scary
So
where does Nibiru come in? Back in 1976 a controversial book called “The
Twelfth Planet” was written by Zecharia Sitchin. Sitchin had interpreted some
ancient Sumerian cuneiform texts (the earliest known form of writing) as a
literal translation of the origin of humankind. These 6000 year old texts
apparently reveal that an alien race known as the Annunaki travelled to Earth
on a planet called Nibiru. It’s a long and involved story, but in a nutshell,
the Anunnaki genetically modified primates on Earth to create homo sapiens to
be their slaves. (I just worked out where the storyline for Kurt Russell’s 1994
movie Stargate probably came from…)
When the Anunnaki left Earth, they let us
rule the planet until they return. All this may seem a little fantastical, and
perhaps a little too detailed when considering it is a literal translation from
6000 year old texts. Sitchin’s work has been disregarded by the scientific
community as many of his methods of interpretation are considered imaginative
at best. Nevertheless, many people have taken Sitchin’s work literally, and
believe Nibiru (in its highly eccentric orbit around the Sun) will be
returning, possibly as soon as 2012 to cause all sorts of terror and
destruction here on Earth. It is important to note here that I am not calling
into question any archaeological, spiritual or historic evidence for Nibiru, I
am simply pointing out the link between the 2012 Doomsday Planet X theory is
based on very dubious astronomical “discoveries”; if this is the case, how can
Planet X be considered to be the embodiment of Nibiru?
Then there’s the IRAS “discovery of a brown
dwarf in the outer Solar System” in 1984 and the “NASA announcement of a 4-8
Earth mass planet travelling toward Earth” in 1993. Doomsayers (often with a
book to sell) cling on to these astronomical discoveries as proof that Nibiru
is in fact the Planet X astronomers have been searching for over the last
century. Not only that, by manipulating the facts about these scientific
studies, they “prove” that Nibiru is travelling toward us, and by 2012, this
massive body will pass through the inner Solar System, causing all sorts of
gravitational damage.
In its purest form, Planet X is an unknown,
theoretically possible planet orbiting peacefully beyond the Kuiper Belt. If
yesterday’s announcement does lead to the observation of a planet or Plutoid,
it will be an incredible discovery that will help to shed some light on the
evolution and characteristics of the mysterious outer reaches of the Solar
System.
2012:
No Killer Solar Flare
According to one of the many Doomsday
scenarios we have been presented with in the run-up to the Mayan
Prophecy-fuelled “end of the world” in the year 2012, this scenario is actually
based on some science. What’s more, there may be some correlation between the
11-year solar cycle and the time cycles seen in the Mayan calendar, perhaps
this ancient civilization understood how the Sun’s magnetism undergoes polarity
changes every decade or so? Plus, religious texts (such as the Bible) say that
we are due for a day of judgement, involving a lot of fire and brimstone. So it
looks like we are going to get roasted alive by our closest star on December
21st, 2012!
Before we go jumping to conclusions, take a
step back and think this through. Like most of the various ways the world is
going to end in 2012, the possibility of the Sun blasting out a huge,
Earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there. But
let’s have a look at what really happens during an Earth-directed solar flare
event, the Earth is actually very well protected. Although some satellites may
not be…
The
Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires
high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar
wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth may
be unlucky enough to be staring down the barrel of an explosion with the energy
of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar
flare and the effects of which can cause problems here on Earth.
Before we look at the Earth-side effects,
let’s have a look at the Sun and briefly understand why it gets so angry every
11 years or so.
The
Solar Cycle
First and foremost, the Sun has a natural
cycle with a period of approximately 11 years. During the lifetime of each
cycle, the magnetic field lines of the Sun are dragged around the solar body by
differential rotation at the solar equator. This means that the equator is
spinning faster than the magnetic poles. As this continues, solar plasma drags
the magnetic field lines around the Sun, causing stress and a build up of
energy (an illustration of this is pictured). As magnetic energy increases,
kinks in the magnetic flux form, forcing them to the surface. These kinks are
known as coronal loops which become more numerous during periods of high solar
activity.
This is where the sunspots come in. As
coronal loops continue to pop up over the surface, sunspots appear too, often
located at the loop footpoints. Coronal loops have the effect of pushing the
hotter surface layers of the Sun (the photosphere and chromosphere) aside,
exposing the cooler convection zone (the reasons why the solar surface and
atmosphere is hotter than the solar interior is down to the coronal heating
phenomenon). As magnetic energy builds up, we can expect more and more magnetic
flux to be forced together. This is when a phenomenon known as magnetic
reconnection occurs.
Reconnection is the trigger for solar
flares of various sizes. As previously reported, solar flares from “nanoflares”
to “X-class flares” are very energetic events. Granted, the largest flares my
generate enough energy for 100 billion atomic explosions, but don’t let this
huge figure concern you. For a start, this flare occurs in the low corona,
right near the solar surface. That’s nearly 100 million miles away (1AU). The
Earth is nowhere close to the blast.
As the solar magnetic field lines release a
huge amount of energy, solar plasma is accelerated and confined within the
magnetic environment (solar plasma is superheated particles like protons, electrons
and some light elements such as helium nuclei). As the plasma particles
interact, X-rays may be generated if the conditions are right and
bremsstrahlung is possible. (Bremsstrahlung occurs when charged particles
interact, resulting in X-ray emission.) This may create an X-ray flare.
The
Problem with X-ray Solar Flares
The biggest problem with an X-ray flare is
that we get little warning when it is going to happen as X-rays travel at the
speed of light (one of the record breaking 2003 solar flares is pictured left).
X-rays from an X-class flare will reach the Earth in around eight minutes. As
X-rays hit our atmosphere, they are absorbed in the outermost layer called the
ionosphere. As you can guess from the name, this is a highly charged, reactive
environment, full of ions (atomic nuclei, and free electrons).
During powerful solar events such as
flares, rates of ionization between X-rays and atmospheric gases increase in
the D and E region layers of the ionosphere. There is a sudden surge in electron
production in these layers. These electrons can cause interference to the
passage of radio waves through the atmosphere, absorbing short wave radio
signals (in the high frequency range), possibly blocking global communications.
These events are known as “Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances” (or SIDs) and they
become commonplace during periods of high solar activity. Interestingly, the
increase in electron density during a SID boosts the propagation of Very Low
Frequency (VLF) radio, a phenomenon scientists use to measure the intensity of
X-rays coming from the Sun.
Coronal
Mass Ejections?
X-ray solar flare emissions are only part of
the story. If the conditions are right, a coronal mass ejection (CME) might be
produced at the site of the flare (although either phenomenon can occur
independently). CMEs are slower than the propagation of X-rays, but their
global effects here on Earth can be more problematic. They may not travel at
the speed of light, but they still travel fast; they can travel at a rate of 2
million miles per hour (3.2 million km/hr), meaning they may reach us in a
matter of hours.
This is where much effort is being put into
space weather prediction. We have a handful of spacecraft sitting between the
Earth and the Sun at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian (L1) point with sensors on board
to measure the energy and intensity of the solar wind. Should a CME pass
through their location, energetic particles and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) can be measured directly. One mission called the Advanced
Composition Explorer (ACE) sits in the L1 point and provides scientists with up
to an hour notice on the approach of a CME. ACE teams up with the Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory
(STEREO), so CMEs can be tracked from the lower corona into interplanetary
space, through the L1 point toward Earth. These solar missions are actively
working together to provide space agencies with advanced notice of an
Earth-directed CME.
So what if a CME reaches Earth? For a
start, much depends on the magnetic configuration of the IMF (from the Sun) and
the geomagnetic field of the Earth (the magnetosphere). Generally speaking, if
both magnetic fields are aligned with polarities pointing in the same
direction, it is highly probable that the CME will be repelled by the
magnetosphere. In this case, the CME will slide past the Earth, causing some
pressure and distortion on the magnetosphere, but otherwise passing without a
problem. However, if the magnetic field lines are in an anti-parallel
configuration (i.e. magnetic polarities in opposite directions), magnetic
reconnection may occur at the leading edge of the magnetosphere.
In this event, the IMF and magnetosphere
will merge, connecting the Earth’s magnetic field with the Sun’s. This sets the
scene for one of the most awe inspiring events in nature: the aurora.
Satellites
in Peril
As
the CME magnetic field connects with the Earth’s, high energy particles are
injected into the magnetosphere. Due to solar wind pressure, the Sun’s magnetic
field lines will fold around the Earth, sweeping behind our planet. The
particles injected in the “dayside” will be funnelled into the polar regions of
the Earth where they interact with our atmosphere, generating light as aurorae.
During this time, the Van Allen belt will also become “super-charged”, creating
a region around the Earth that could cause problems to unprotected astronauts
and any unshielded satellites. For more on the damage that can be caused to
astronauts and spacecraft, check out “Radiation Sickness, Cellular Damage and
Increased Cancer Risk for Long-term Missions to Mars” and “New Transistor Could
Side-Step Space Radiation Problem.”
As if the radiation from the Van Allen belt
wasn’t enough, satellites could succumb to the threat of an expanding
atmosphere. As you’d expect, as if the Sun hits the Earth with X-rays and CMEs,
there will be inevitable heating and global expansion of the atmosphere,
possibly encroaching into satellite orbital altitudes. If left unchecked, an
aerobraking effect on satellites could cause them to slow and drop in altitude.
Aerobraking has been used extensively as a space flight tool to slow spacecraft
down when being inserted into orbit around another planet, but this will have
an adverse effect on satellites orbiting Earth as any slowing of velocity could
cause it to re-enter the atmosphere.
We
Feel the Effects on the Ground Too
Although satellites are on the front line,
if there is a powerful surge in energetic particles entering the atmosphere, we
may feel the adverse effects down here on Earth too. Due to the X-ray
generation of electrons in the ionosphere, some forms of communication may
become patchy (or be removed all together), but this isn’t all that can happen.
Particularly in high-latitude regions, a vast electric current, known as an
“electrojet”, may form through the ionosphere by these incoming particles. With
an electric current comes a magnetic field. Depending on the intensity of the
solar storm, currents may be induced down here on the ground, possibly
overloading national power grids. On March 13th 1989, six million people lost
power in the Quebec region of Canada after a huge increase in solar activity
caused a surge from ground-induced currents. Quebec was paralysed for nine
hours whilst engineers worked on a solution to the problem.
Can
Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?
The short answer to this is “no”.
The longer answer is a little more
involved. Whilst a solar flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, could cause
secondary problems such as satellite damage and injury to unprotected
astronauts and blackouts, the flare itself is not powerful enough to destroy
Earth, certainly not in 2012. I dare say, in the far future when the Sun begins
to run out of fuel and swell into a red giant, it might be a bad era for life
on Earth, but we have a few billion years to wait for that to happen. There
could even be the possibility of several X-class flares being launched and by
pure bad luck we may get hit by a series of CMEs and X-ray bursts, but none
will be powerful to overcome our magnetosphere, ionosphere and thick atmosphere
below.
“Killer” solar flares have been observed on
other stars. In 2006, NASA’s Swift observatory saw the largest stellar flare
ever observed 135 light-years away. Estimated to have unleashed an energy of 50
million trillion atomic bombs, the II Pegasi flare will have wiped out most
life on Earth if our Sun fired X-rays from a flare of that energy at us.
However, our Sun is not II Pegasi. II Pegasi is a violent red giant star with a
binary partner in a very close orbit. It is believed the gravitational
interaction with its binary partner and the fact II Pegasi is a red giant is
the root cause behind this energetic flare event.
Doomsayers point to the Sun as a possible
Earth-killer source, but the fact remains that our Sun is a very stable star.
It does not have a binary partner (like II Pegasi), it has a predictable cycle
(of approximately 11 years) and there is no evidence that our Sun contributed to
any mass extinction event in the past via a huge Earth-directed flare. Very
large solar flares have been observed (such as the 1859 Carrington white light
flare)… but we are still here.
In an added twist, solar physicists are
surprised by the lack of solar activity at the start of this 24th solar cycle,
leading to some scientists to speculate we might be on the verge of another
Maunder minimum and “Little Ice Age”. This is in stark contrast to NASA solar
physicist’s 2006 prediction that this cycle will be a “doozy”.
This leads me to conclude that we still
have a long way to go when predicting solar flare events. Although space
weather prediction is improving, it will be a few years yet until we can read
the Sun accurately enough to say with any certainty just how active a solar
cycle is going to be. So, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is
no physical way to say that the Earth will be hit by any flare, let alone a big
one in 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it will not be an extinction event.
Yes, satellites may be damaged, causing secondary problems such as a GPS loss
(which might disrupt air traffic control for example) or national power grids
may be overwhelmed by auroral electrojets, but nothing more extreme than that.
2012:
No Geomagnetic Reversal
Using the Mayan Prophecy as an excuse to
create new and explosive ways in which our planet may be destroyed, 20 12 2012
doomsayers use the geomagnetic shift theory as if it is set in stone. Simply
because scientists have said that it might happen within the next millennium
appears to be proof enough that it will happen in four years time. Alas,
although this theory has some scientific backing, there is no way that anyone
can predict when geomagnetic reversal might happen to the nearest day or to the
nearest million years…
Firstly, let’s differentiate between
geomagnetic reversal and polar shift. Geomagnetic reversal is the change in the
magnetic field of the Earth, where the magnetic north pole shifts to the South
Polar Region and the south magnetic pole shifts to the North Polar Region. Once
this process is complete, our compasses would point toward Antarctica, rather
than northern Canada. Polar shift is considered to be a less likely event that
occurs a few times in the evolutionary timescale of the Solar System. There are
a couple of examples of planets that have suffered a catastrophic polar shift,
including Venus (which rotates in an opposite direction to all the other
planets, therefore it was flipped upside down by some huge event, such as a
planetary collision) and Uranus (which rotates on its side, having been knocked
off-axis by an impact, or some gravitational effect caused by Jupiter and
Saturn). Many authors (including the doomsayers themselves) often cite both
geomagnetic reversal and polar shift as being one of the same thing. This isn’t
the case.
So, on with geomagnetic reversal…
How
often does it happen?
The reasons behind the reversal of the
magnetic poles is poorly understood, but it is all down to the internal
dynamics of Planet Earth. As our planet spins, the molten iron in the core
flows freely, forcing free electrons to flow with it. This convective motion of
charged particles sets up a magnetic field which bases its poles in the North
and South Polar Regions (a dipole). This is known as the dynamo effect. The
resulting magnetic field approximates a bar magnet, allowing the field to
envelop our planet.
This magnetic field passes through the core
to the crust and pushes into space as the Earth’s magnetosphere, a protective
bubble constantly being buffeted by the solar wind. As the solar wind particles
are usually charged, the Earth’s powerful magnetosphere deflects the particles,
only allowing them into the polar cusp regions where the polar magnetic
fieldlines become “open.” The regions at which these energetic particles are
allowed to enter glow as aurorae.
Usually this situation can last for aeons
(a stable magnetic field threaded through the North and South Polar Regions),
but occasionally, the magnetic field is known to reverse and alter in strength.
Why is this?
Again, we simply do not know. We do know
that this magnetic pole flip-flop has occurred many times in the last few
million years, the last occurred 780,000 years ago according to ferromagnetic
sediment. A few scaremongering articles have said geomagnetic reversal occurs
with “clockwork regularity” – this is simply not true. As can be seen from the
diagram (left), magnetic reversal has occurred fairly chaotically in the last
160 million years. Long-term data suggests that the longest stable period
between magnetic “flips” is nearly 40 million years (during the Cretaceous
period over 65 million years BC) and the shortest is a few hundred years.
Some 2012 theories suggest that the Earth’s
geomagnetic reversal is connected to the natural 11-year solar cycle. Again,
there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this claim. No data has
ever been produced suggesting a Sun-Earth magnetic polarity change connection.
So, already this doomsday theory falters in
that geomagnetic reversal does not occur with “clockwork regularity,” and it
has no connection with solar dynamics. We are not due a magnetic flip as we
cannot predict when the next one is going to occur, magnetic reversals occur at
seemingly random points in history.
What
causes geomagnetic reversal?
Research is afoot to try to understand the
internal dynamics of our planet. As the Earth spins, the molten iron inside
churns and flows in a fairly stable manner for millennia. For some reason
during geomagnetic reversal, some instability causes an interruption to the
steady generation of a global magnetic field, causing it to flip-flop between
the poles.
In a previous Universe Today article, we
discussed the efforts of geophysicist Dan Lathrop’s attempts to create his own
“model Earth,” setting a 26 tonne ball (containing a molten iron analogue,
sodium) spinning to see if the internal motion of the fluid could set up a
magnetic field. This huge laboratory experiment is testament to the efforts
being put into understanding how our Earth even generates a magnetic field, let
alone why it randomly reverses.
A minority view (which, again is used by
doomsayers to link geomagnetic reversal with Planet X) is that there may be some
external influence that causes the reversal. You will often see associated with
the Planet X/Nibiru claims that should this mystery object encounter the inner
Solar System during its highly elliptical orbit, the magnetic field disturbance
could upset the internal dynamics of the Earth (and the Sun, possibly
generating that “killer” solar flare I discussed back in June). This theory is
a poor attempt to link several doomsday scenarios with a common harbinger of
doom (i.e. Planet X). There is no reason to think the strong magnetic field of
the Earth can be influenced by any external force, let alone a non-existent
planet (or was that a brown dwarf?).
The
magnetic field strength waxes and wanes…
New research into the Earth’s magnetic
field was published recently in the September 26th issue of Science, suggesting
that the Earth’s magnetic field isn’t as simple as we once believed. In
addition to the North-South dipole, there is a weaker magnetic field spread
around the planet, probably generated in the outer core of the Earth.
The Earth’s magnetic field is measured to
vary in field strength and it is a well known fact that the magnetic field
strength is currently experiencing a downward trend. The new research paper,
co-authored by geochronologist Brad Singer of the University of Wisconsin,
suggests that the weaker magnetic field is critical to geomagnetic reversal.
Should the stronger dipole (north-south) field reduce below the magnetic field
strength of this usually weaker, distributed field, a geomagnetic reversal is
possible.
“The field is not always stable, the
convection and the nature of the flow changes, and it can cause the dipole
that’s generated to wax and wane in intensity and strength,” Singer said. “When
it becomes very weak, it’s less capable of reaching to the surface of the
Earth, and what you start to see emerge is this non-axial dipole, the weaker
part of the field that’s left over.” Singer’s research group analysed samples
of ancient lava from volcanoes in Tahiti and Germany between 500,000 and
700,000 years ago. By looking at an iron-rich mineral called magnetite in the
lava, the researchers were able to deduce the direction of the magnetic field.
The spin of the electrons in the mineral is
governed by the dominant magnetic field. During times of strong dipolar field,
these electrons pointed toward the magnetic North Pole. During times of weak
dipolar field, the electrons pointed to wherever the dominant field was, in
this case the distributed magnetic field. They think that when the weakened
dipolar field drops below a certain threshold, the distributed field pulls the
dipolar field off-axis, causing a geomagnetic shift.
“The magnetic field is one of the most
fundamental features of the Earth,” Singer said. “But it’s still one of the
biggest enigmas in science. Why [the flip] happens is something people have
been chasing for more than a hundred years.”
Our
meandering magnetic pole
The
movement of Earth's north magnetic pole across the Canadian arctic, 1831--2001
(Geological Survey of Canada)
Although there appears to be a current
downward trend in magnetic field strength, the current magnetic field is still
considered to be “above average” when compared with the variations measured in
recent history. According to researchers at Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, San Diego, if the magnetic field continued to decrease at the
current trend, the dipolar field would effectively be zero in 500 years time.
However, it is more likely that the field strength will simply rebound and
increase in strength as it has done over the last several thousand years,
continuing with its natural fluctuations.
The positions of the magnetic poles are
also known to be wondering over Arctic and Antarctic locations. Take the
magnetic north pole for example (pictured left); it has accelerated north over
the Canadian plains from 10 km per year in the 20th Century to 40 km per year
more recently. It is thought that if the point of magnetic north continues this
trend, it will exit North America and enter Siberia in a few decades time. This
is not a new phenomenon however. Ever since James Ross’ discovery of the
location of the north magnetic pole for the first time in 1831, it’s location
has meandered hundreds of miles (even though today’s measurements show some
acceleration).
So,
no doomsday then?
Geomagnetic reversal is an engrossing area of
geophysical research that will continue to occupy physicists and geologists for
many years to come. Although the dynamics behind this event are not fully
understood, there is absolutely no scientific evidence supporting the claim
that there could be a geomagnetic reversal around the time of December 21st,
2012.
Besides, the effects of such a reversal
have been totally over-hyped. Should we experience geomagnetic reversal in our
lifetimes (which we probably won’t), it is unlikely that we’ll be cooked alive
by the Solar Wind, or be wiped out by cosmic rays. It is unlikely that we’ll
suffer any mass extinction event (after all, early man, homo erectus, lived
through the last geomagnetic shift, apparently with ease). We’ll most likely
experience aurorae at all latitudes whilst the dipolar magnetic field settles
down to its new, reversed state, and there might be a small increase in
energetic particles from space (remember, just because the magnetosphere is weakened,
doesn’t mean we wont have magnetic protection), but we’ll still be (largely)
protected by our thick atmosphere.
Satellites may malfunction and migrating
birds may become confused, but to predict world collapse is a hard pill to
swallow.
In
conclusion:
Simply because the magnetic field of the
Earth is weakening does not mean it is near collapse. Geomagnetic field
strength is “above average” if we compare today’s measurements with the last
few million years.
The magnetic poles are not set in
geographical locations, they move (at varying speeds) and have done ever since
measurements began.
There is no evidence to suggest external
forcing of internal geomagnetic dynamics of the Earth. Therefore there is no
evidence of the solar cycle-geomagnetic shift connection. Don’t get me started
on Planet X.
So, do you think there will be a
geomagnetic reversal event in 2012? I thought not.
Once again, we find another 2012 doomsday
scenario to be flawed in so many ways. There is no doubt that geomagnetic
reversal will happen in the future for Earth, but we’re talking about time
scales anything from an optimistic (and unlikely) 500 years to millions of
years, certainly not in the coming four years…
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